Lesson 7: 4.7 Inference for Experiemnts
Duration of Days: 3
Lesson Objective
Students will be able to explain the concept of statistically significant results and use simulations to determine if an observed difference is likely due to chance.
If Group A averaged 5 points higher than Group B, is that "real" or just "luck of the draw"?
How does a dotplot of a simulation help us see what "random luck" looks like?
Statistically significant
Simulation
HSS-IC.B.5: Use data from a randomized experiment to compare two treatments; use simulations to decide if differences between parameters are significant.
The phrase "Statistically Significant" appears on the SAT. Students must know this means the result is unlikely to have happened by chance alone.
This section introduces the logic of the p-value without using the formal name yet. It uses simulation to show students that if a difference is "too big to be a fluke," we call it significant.
The Problem: In an experiment with 20 caffeine users and 20 non-users, the caffeine group's heart rate was 8 bpm higher. A simulation of 1,000 random assignments showed a difference of 8 or more happened 421 times.
Task: Are these results statistically significant? Explain your reasoning.
Perform a "Card Shuffling Simulation" in class to show how random assignment can naturally create small differences between groups.
Teacher assigns examples from the textbook and other resources.
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