Lesson Objective

Students will be able to interpret the slope and y-intercept of a regression line in context and use the equation to make predictions (including identifying the dangers of extrapolation).

If the slope of a line is 5, what does that actually tell us about the relationship between our x and y variables?

Why is it "illegal" in statistics to predict the height of a 40-year-old using a growth model built for toddlers?

Regression line

Predicted value

Slope

y-intercept

Extrapolation

HSS-ID.B.6.A: Fit a function to the data; use functions fitted to data to solve problems in the context of the data.

This is one of the most common SAT Math topics. Students are frequently given a scatterplot with a line of best fit and asked to "Interpret the meaning of the slope".

This section introduces the line as a predictive model. Students learn the anatomy of the linear equation and how to use it responsibly.

The Problem: A regression line y-hat = 32 + 0.5x relates x = study time (minutes) to y = test score.

Task: Interpret the slope and the y-intercept. If a student studies for 200 minutes, what is their predicted score? Why might we be cautious of this prediction?

y vs y-hat

Slope interpretation

Support: Provide a "Sentence Starter" template for interpreting slope.

Extension: Have students find a y-intercept that is statistically significant but contextually nonsensical.

Teacher assigns examples from the textbook and other resources.

Access E-Book through Classlink